The Future and Its Enemies

by Virginia Postrel

Note: At the end of this term we began reading “The Future and Its Enemies” by Virginia Postrel. Due to time we only advanced up to chapter 5 but so far it’s been an exciting journey in changing my paradigms regarding what the future is and who brings it about.

Introduction: The Search for Tomorrow

Virginia Postrel opens her book by depicting Disneyland’s “Tomorrowland”, a place that seeks to build the future in the present. Disneyland managers constantly improve and change this recreational park in order to meet the expectations people currently have of the future. In their operations and through time park administrators have realized that they must be open to change, for what was once regarded as very innovative and futuristic (as some things have actually been achieved in reality) they become past and not predictions. What this teaches us is that the future is a dynamic place formulated by the expectations and ideas of millions of individuals who constantly attach meaning to their surrounding realities.

“What are the processes through which human creativity produces progress, prosperity, happiness, and freedom? What are the characteristics of a dynamic civilization, and how do they differ from the ways in which we usually hear our world described?”

Chapter 1: The One Best Way

In her first chapter, The One Best way, Postrel introduces the concept of Stasism and some of its main proponents: technocrats and reactionaries. They wish things to be in a perfect state where there is the elimination of any risk or danger to society and everyone lives “Happily Ever After”. Stasist Reactionaries have nostalgia for the past and have an ideal vision of life without movement. They are often very conservative and wish to uphold peasant virtues where people keep their places (socially and geographically) and tradition reigns above ambition or any sort of disturbing invention. On the other hand you have the Technocrats, which do not uphold these peasant virtues since they agree with the advancements in technology, but they believe that there should be somebody in charge who leads this way and manipulates this technology in the best way possible to bring progress. They believe in a common central plan for all that would ideally make everyone reach a state of full satisfaction and progress. The irony in presenting this case is that Stasists and Technocrats believe things should be of a certain way and remain like that forever, but no one can decide on this ONE BEST WAY to move towards.

“Stasist supporters are numerous, but their visions of the ideal future are varied and incompatible, making their alliances fragile and temporary. They disapprove of “emergent, complex messiness” dread the “reckless ride into the unknown,” fear the “infinite series.” But their unity is misleading. They cannot agree on which one static, finite world – which one best way – should replace the open ended future.”

Chapters 2 & 3: The Party of Life & The Infinite Series

The Party of Life is the antithesis of The One Best Way. In this chapter Postrel makes the case for Dynamism and shows that the problem with dynamists is that such a line of thought is conformed by people who believe change is constant and desirable and that individualism is a value to uphold so it is probably not very likely that they would conform a group and call themselves “dynamists” because this action implies something static, that a group be formed and support a vision implies that this vision is to be imposed on others, whatever utopia is to be created is a flaw in the very thought that the future is unpredictable.

Dynamists are open to learning and admit their own ignorance for if one was able to “know it all” it would mean that information is static as well and that new knowledge is impossible. She talks about the progress of human culture and how as much as there can be creative destruction (new thing replacing old) in general it is the creation of these things that result from the combination of old things which allow for new possible combinations. These new possible combinations allow for more possible combinations and so on and so on in an infinite manner. There are though cases where there is no creative destruction but rather just more and more creation as in the case of art. New Art does not replace the old art for the old art still exists. New and Old art are simply patterns of combinations that have resulted from these very infinite series.

“Dynamism generates progress through trial and error, experiment and feedback. Both components of the process are crucial”.

“People do the best they can at the moment, deal with problems as they arise, and develop networks to help them out. Unexpected shocks are inevitable; the goal, then, is to foster adaptability.”

Chapter 4

The Tree of Knowledge

This has probably been my favorite chapter from the books I’ve read this semester. This is because of the connections that I made with previous essays and materials that Postrel mentions. The Tree of Life makes the case that knowledge is like a big tree with myriad branches extending in all directions and from those branches twigs and fruits and leaves and more. In the end you have a big, robust tree of knowledge. This vision comes both from the combination of Polanyi’s concept of “Tacit Knowledge” (the knowledge we have but aren’t aware of), and Hayek’s “Use of Knowledge in Society” where he claims that knowledge is not centralized but dispersed between all of the individuals of society who have the knowledge of the “man-on-the-spot”. The combination of these make for knowledge in general to be rich and varied and impossible for one single person to ever hold it all. In contrast stasist reactionaries have a conception of a tall uniform palm tree and regard that knowledge is simply one and complete, all that is to be known can be known by the experts.